the Awesome Highlighter

But the lack of a top tier Green candidate has long lasting reverberations, especially in November.  Now the Democrats – particularly if they nominate somebody viewed as credible with the anti-establishment, environmental left (particularly Scarcelli or McGowan, in my opinion) – will have an easier time unifying the left.  It is true, Democrats will still face a daunting task with the presence of Eliot Cutler who has considerable credibility on left – but it will still be easier than dealing with both him and a Green Party challenger.  This may allow the Democratic nominee a certain amount of leeway to run to the center in an attempt to outflank the Republican nominee and Cutler.   remove

Speaking of the Independent, that brings us to Eliot Cutler, the second answer to the “who may benefit?” question.

If Green voters are going to participate in this election, there could potentially be a perfect storm brewing around Cutler that would allow them some level of satisfaction in voting for him.  Let me explain.

A Green voter is, at their core, fed up with the two parties.  They tend to be either former Democrats who became disillusioned with the party for moderating and selling out the environmental agenda, or people who never belonged to a political party or movement because they felt shut out from the process and care about Green issues.

They are also on the left of the political spectrum, outside of the Democratic Party mainstream.  You will find them advocating for more extreme versions of what Democrats do.

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Mr. Cutler (rightly) enjoyed ribbing me last week for continually saying that he “has credibility with the left” – but my words are hedged there for a reason:  I use the word “credibility” because his history with politics, but more importantly issues (he helped write the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act, for example) allows him to talk about things that are important to the left without sounding like he is pandering, insincere or unfriendly.  But at the same time, I say he has credibility as a conscious way of saying, “he is not a traditional leftist” – in other terms, he NEEDS credibility, because his platform, campaign, rhetoric, and general persona are far more dynamic than simply a cookie cutter left-wing politician.

Indeed, he would quickly point out that he changed his registration to Republican to work for the election of Peter Mills in 2006, and has since been an Independent.  His history is that of a man who worked at the OMB for President Carter, which clearly helped shape his sensibilities on budget priorities and long term fiscal planning, which makes up the bulk of what he talks about when you sit down and chat about politics with him.  Since announcing his candidacy, he has talked about everything from charter schools, to “doing away with programs we don’t need”, to efficiency in government.  He is – I believe genuinely (as in he isn’t faking it) - far more fiscally conservative than any of the Democrats running, by a long shot.

The point here being, he is to the right of most Greens on many issues, but due to certain parts of his personal history, he has enough (sorry Eliot) “credibility” with the left to pacify the concerns they may have over his conservative streak, and allow them to be open to supporting him.

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But more importantly, Cutler has presented himself as a straight shooting alternative to the Democrat-Republican dichotomy in this election – in other words, a candidate outside “the system”.  If you are an anti-establishment voter, tired of Republicans and Democrats, where would you turn in this election?  The only realistic options are not voting, or voting for Cutler.  Given the fact that I think most Greens can feel politically comfortable with Cutler, this becomes a real possibility.

The remaining challenge for Cutler will be convincing this group (and many similarly minded Independents) that his brand of anti-establishment is in line with theirs.  His challengers will undoubtedly look to paint him as somebody who was part of the establishment 30-40 years ago, and is now nothing more than an establishment retread.  If Cutler is deftly able to parry that line of attack and re-pivot that he has been a private businessman and lawyer since then and remains untainted by current involvement in public service, he may find success with this crowd.  It will be an interesting dynamic to watch as it plays out.

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Now, what will really happen on election day?

That is anyone’s guess.  I personally think it will be some mix of “all of the above”, with a dramatic number of Greens simply staying home or lodging protest votes, but those who do strategically vote, I think will end up moving to Cutler in some numbers.

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